Recent polling shows 18 per cent of US voters say they’re more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Swift
For a long time, Taylor Swift’s politics seemed ambiguous: her lyrics suggested that she had feminist sympathies (‘The Man’ being the most obvious example), but her outward image appeared to intentionally give the impression of a MAGA-coded, all-American, girl-next-door. But as time has gone on, Swift has become (slightly) more outspoken.
In 2018, she openly supported Democratic candidates in Tennessee, where she spent some of her childhood. In 2020, her documentary Miss Americana depicted the singer speaking out against Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn and calling her “Trump in a wig”, after she opposed LGBTQ rights and the Violence Against Women Act. She went on to explicitly endorse Joe Biden in 2020 and vowed to then-president Donald Trump on Twitter that “we will vote you out”.
Swift has not yet endorsed a candidate for the 2024 election, but Trump loyalists and allies have already declared “holy war” on the singer, taking it as a given that she will eventually endorse Biden. It’s little wonder the right in the US are freaking out about Swift’s influence (and spreading conspiracies that she’s an “election interference psyop”): exclusive polling conducted for Newsweek by Redfield & Wilton Strategies found that 18 per cent of voters say they're “more likely” or “significantly more likely” to vote for a candidate endorsed by Swift.
Swift has been a popular artist for years now, but in recent years she has come to dominate pop culture, reaching an almost unprecedented level of celebrity. Her Eras tour became the first tour in history to rake in over a billion dollars (with the accompanying concert film quickly becoming the highest-grossing concert film of all time), she was named Time magazine’s 2023 ‘Person of the Year’, and is the most-streamed woman on Spotify. Her vast, all-encompassing cultural influence is indisputable – leading some politicos to question how much she stands to influence politics as millions of Americans head to the polls in 2024.
We spoke to Dr Brandon Valeriano, a political scientist at Seton Hall University’s School of Diplomacy, to unpack why the Republicans are so scared of Taylor Swift, and whether she could really sway the 2024 election.
What do you make of reports that Taylor Swift could sway the 2024 election – especially as the youth vote is expected to be key to winning the White House?
Dr Brandon Valeriano: Swaying the election is unlikely, but also a very dramatic way of framing the issue. It’s almost as if someone is setting up a situation in which they can blame an individual for a collective failure. However, if this is a close election - anything becomes possible.
The Swift demographic speaks to two core constituencies that will be important for this election: the undecided and the youth voter. The key concern with the youth voter is turnout. Are they going to show up to vote for someone older than their grandparents? Are they going to show up if they blame the US for the atrocities in Gaza? Swift speaks to those concerns and recenters them towards the core issues of women's rights, abortion, and inclusion.
The other issue is the undecided vote, those torn, maybe in red districts with heavy MAGA families who are consistently told what to do but don’t have opinions. She can activate these people, maybe give them a voice. While Fox News and the like are claiming Taylor is a Biden shill, she has clear views that she expressed in [her documentary] Miss Americana. Standing up to her Dad and actively fighting against [Republican] Senator Marsha Blackburn is the type of political activation that many people fear. They will call it brainwashing, or Swiftwashing, but the reality is that she is giving people voice to what they have felt all along. That is an inspiring message and we should never discount Taylor’s brilliance.
We have evidence for some clear influence so far. When Swift promoted voter registration on Instagram, 35,000 new voters signed up. This is a dramatic outcome that well funded organisations can only dream of. The other is her impact on marketing; recently it was measured that she boosted the brand value of the Chiefs by $335 million. This will likely increase during the runup to the Super Bowl. While these claims are rather dramatic, no one else in pop culture globally can hope to achieve the same impact.
What would you say to anyone who is doubtful about Swift’s influence on young people?
Dr Brandon Valeriano: In political science, there is a saying that the media has created an image where the celebrity is larger than life. This is mostly true, but I think the person that defies this characteristic is Taylor Swift. She truly is larger than life at this point. There are so few celebrities that reach what might be called the monoculture – the singular culture, the water cooler culture. Taylor Swift’s influence, her tour, and more recently her concert movie demonstrate the expanding reach of her networks. She is unobjectionable, inspiring, and also avoids many hot rod issues like sexuality rather focusing on romanticism.
While there was a big debate spurred on by the New York Times, questioning if Taylor Swift is bisexual, the deeper underlying current is that she lacks any sort of oververt sexuality. She sings about heartbreak. Her relationship with Travis Kelce, at least publicly, has it all fairly chaste - pecks on the cheek.
The interesting thing about Taylor Swift is that it’s not exactly clear who and what she supports. She hasn’t endorsed Joe Biden, she hasn’t endorsed anyone since she came out against Marsha Blackburn. In fact, the interesting thing about Taylor Swift is she’s so unknown for her personal views that she has almost become an avatar for anything and anything people want to view and express about the current political menu. That is the reality of this modern moment, people expect their idols to mimic their views and sometimes become shocked when reality and their delusional connection to an idol falls apart. I was reminded of this SNL skit where people discover Beyonce is Black.
What do you make of the new conspiracy theory that Swift is a election interference psyop acting on behalf of the Democrats?
Dr Brandon Valeriano: For many, the US government is simultaneously the most calculating nefarious political organisation in the world while at the same time being entirely inept and unable to control things like healthcare, the border, or critical infrastructure. The reality is that the Republican party wants to explain away two simple things: while they no longer appeal to the youth vote and why women are rejecting them in droves. But this is simply because of their abortion politics, nothing else really matters here.
There is no vast conspiracy to deny women in youth voters to the Republican party, these are all calculated political policy choices brought on by the Republican base that destroyed their ability to appeal to women and youth voters.
Is there any other time in American history where a celebrity has influenced an election?
Dr Brandon Valeriano: Of course, none of this is new. Celebrities have always influenced politics from the whole entire political career. Ronald Reagan to the influence of certain people like Frank Sinatra, Barbra Streisand and Oprah Winfrey. In fact, Oprah Winfrey is a very special case – a paper by Northwestern and University of Maryland scholars found that Oprah created one million additional voters to Obama in 2008. While Obama won by nearly 10 million votes and Biden won by 7 million votes, what matters is where these people are voting. A swing in an important district can win the election.
I was kind of reminded of an old Disney Movie ‘the One and Only, Genuine, Original Family Band’ which is a 1968 musical about a family coming up with a campaign song for the 1888 election. Not exactly your typical Disney fare. But the point being is that celebrity politics and the influence of pop culture was much different in the past when we didn’t have the ubiquity of pop culture like we do now that’s brought on by the internet. Simple things like songs and political rallies really mattered. Harkening back to the bygone days, ‘the Music Man’, the local town band that was critically important for political activities. This goes to the newer reality where the local town band and the local singer can have a global geopolitical reach. This is what is new, the globalisation of popular culture and Taylor is the exemplar of this.